If it were a normal year, the fourth quarter would bring a steady increase in trucking rates. However, 2020 has been anything but normal, so what does that mean for Q4?
Given that everything this year has been so drastically different from what we would expect, 2020 has been guided at best by short term predictions. It was predicted that Q2 would have lower rates due to lockdown, and while they were low, they still exceeded predictions. During Q3 we saw a surge in trucking rates, likely triggered by the e-commerce boom, and it’s expected to continue throughout the year. All signs are pointing to a prolonged trucking rally, despite the pandemic and political uncertainty in the U.S.
Ultimately, we’re in for something completely different for the fourth quarter than we’ve ever seen before.
Ultimately, we’re in for something completely different for the fourth quarter than we’ve ever seen before. All historical data is essentially being tossed out the window as 2020 has been unprecedented in so many ways. With bid season fast approaching for shippers, understanding what Q4 has in store will have a tremendous impact on how you go about your bidding process for 2021.
High Q3 Rates Will Lead to Even Higher Rates in Q4
The pandemic has caused a shift in consumer spending due to social distancing measures and the lockdown period across the United States which has caused a spike in trucking demand. Despite the economic strains and widespread job loss that was experienced by many consumers, retail sales haven’t weakened. Instead of eliminating non essential spending, consumers have shifted their purchasing habits away from services and over to material goods, especially through e-commerce platforms.
This means that retailers have been seeing peak volumes well in advance of the holiday spending season, causing them to struggle to keep stocks replenished. The demand has been reducing inventory levels, while sales remain strong (and continue to grow) leaving no buffer period before sales really start to climb in November and December as consumers begin their holiday shopping.
These two factors combined can result in elevated truckload spot rates and capacity shortages through the end of 2020 and potentially continue well into 2021.
With reduced inventory, a rise in demand for consumer products such as retail and grocery, and the continued recovery of industrial production will continue to push growth in truckload demand. However, challenges in the U.S. with the dwindling pool of truck drivers will continue to result in capacity shortages throughout several industries. These two factors combined can result in elevated truckload spot rates and capacity shortages through the end of 2020 and potentially continue well into 2021.
To add to the logistic nightmare, consumers now have an inherent expectation for fast shipping from e-commerce sites as well as a wider availability of pickup options which means that retailers are pressured to offer competitive shipping times or else lose out on sales to companies like Amazon.
Even with the current unemployment rate, the housing market is growing and consumer spending remains high.
The United States continues a strong economic climate despite, or perhaps in spite of, the uncertainties 2020 has given us; from social unrest due to the presidential election, to the ongoing struggle with COVID-19. The stock market is high and there is a growing optimism for an economic upswing ahead. Even with the current unemployment rate, the housing market is growing and consumer spending remains high. However, the economy could still be vulnerable, especially if the stock market is responding primarily to low interest rates and has an underlying weakness to its overall stability.
What can shippers do to manage current market volatility?
If we’ve learned anything from 2020 is that historical data is all but useless, as everything is different from the years we’ve seen prior. With bidding season on the horizon for 2021, it’s important to make sure that your organization has a clear direction on how to manage its bids to avoid redlining your freight budget.
An important place to start for your business in 2021 is with your routing guide procedure. Take another look at this document, make sure it’s up to date. Make sure you adjust for current rates and that it contains all your current requirements. It might be necessary to rebid for the short-term when the truck capacity is tight. Perform detailed research on market conditions and decide how long this customized “mini-bid contract” will last. As always, utilize freight forecasting and reporting to help manage your spot bids and awards.
How BlueGrace Can Help You Get the Most Out of Your Bid Season
In this year, more than ever, we need to think outside the box. In a constrained and uncertain market, this creates challenges for shippers. Last year, when demand was low and supply was outpacing demand, shippers had easy RFP cycles with carriers and brokers undercutting each other for rates. Programs like our Low Volume Aggregation program are attractive in the current market and can help shippers make sustainable bids for the upcoming year that will help them thrive during the uncertainties ahead.
Read more about our LVAP program here, or contact us using the for below to see how we can help your company succeed.